Soccer World Cup 2018

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Harry Hayfield
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Soccer World Cup 2018

Post by Harry Hayfield » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:27 am

I don't know if members have an interest in the soccer (what we Brits term football) World Cup that starts tomorrow in Russia, but what I try and do is, doing nothing more than stating that the team's performance in the championship is standard, make an estimate of the result as we go through the competition (and in the past I have not been too bad at it, getting the majority of the quarter finalists right, but the system crashes after that point), therefore was wondering if members would like me to do that system for this World Cup and at the same time see if we have any soccer fans as well?
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

Mobster
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Re: Soccer World Cup 2018

Post by Mobster » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:25 pm

Harry you know, just like the Yanks with their armchair quarterbacks we all become 'experts' in a world cup ha ha. Go ahead!!

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Harry Hayfield
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Re: Soccer World Cup 2018

Post by Harry Hayfield » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:42 pm

With that rousing endorsement, let me explain how the system works. This afternoon Russia (RUS) will play Saudi Arabia (KSA), when the match is completed I will take that result "as average" and apply it to their other matches in the group, therefore, for instance, if Russia destroy (in a literal sense) the Saudis 3 - 1, then Russia's next matches will see them score three goals (regardless of opposition) and Saudi Arabia will score one goal (regardless of opposition). Tomorrow afternoon when Egypt (EGY) and Uruguay (URU) play I will do the same so that on Friday afternoon, I will be able to project the final placing of Group A, and similarly for the other groups as the week goes on.

There is however one slight fly in the ointment and that is I move house on Monday and have no idea what the internet will be like there, therefore could I ask Mobster to send me a PM with his mobile phone number with it (so that I can a) text him the results and then b) my projection of the group) for as long as it takes me to get a signal to actually do it myself?

The final score was Russia 5 - 0 Saudi Arabia, this means that according to my theory Russia will score five goals in each of their next matches, whilst Saudi Arabia will not score any. I should point out that these first round matches are not a very good indicator of the final group standings, but do give an hint of who might qualify.
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

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Harry Hayfield
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Re: Soccer World Cup 2018

Post by Harry Hayfield » Fri Jun 15, 2018 2:33 pm

In the second match of the competition, Uruguay beat Egypt by a single goal to nil, therefore we are now able to calculate how Group A will go from now on:

June 14th 2018: Russia 5 - 0 Saudi Arabia
June 15th 2018: Uruguay 1 - 0 Egypt
June 19th 2018: Russia 5 - 0 Egypt
June 20th 2018: Uruguay 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia
June 25th 2018: Uruguay 1 - 5 Russia, Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Egypt

Russia win all three of their matches (9 points) and therefore qualify at the top of their group, Uruguay win two of these matches and lose one (6 points) and therefore qualify in second place.
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

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Re: Soccer World Cup 2018

Post by Harry Hayfield » Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:49 pm

Group B Matches

June 15th 2018: Morocco 0 - 1 Iran, Portugal 3 - 3 Spain
June 20th 2018: Portugal 3 - 0 Morocco, Iran 1 - 3 Spain
June 25th 2018: Iran 1 - 3 Portugal, Spain 3 - 0 Morocco

Portugal win two matches and draw one (7 points) as do Spain (7 points) and therefore qualify from Group B
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

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Re: Soccer World Cup 2018

Post by Harry Hayfield » Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:10 pm

Group C Matches

June 16th 2018: France 2 - 1 Australia, Peru 0 - 1 Denmark
June 21st 2018: Denmark 1 - 1 Australia, France 2 - 0 Peru
June 26th 2018: Denmark 1 - 2 France, Australia 1 - 0 Peru

France qualify at the top of the table (9 points), Denmark finish on four points (one win, one draw and a loss), Australia finish on four points as well and therefore goal difference is taken into account, however in this situation both teams have the same goal difference and as a result, both have an equal chance of qualifying

Group D Matches
June 16th 2018: Argentina 1 - 1 Iceland, Croatia 2 - 0 Nigeria
June 21st 2018: Argentina 1 - 2 Croatia, Nigeria 0 - 1 Iceland
June 26th 2018: Nigeria 0 - 1 Argentina, Iceland 1 - 2 Croatia

Croatia win all of their matches and so finish top (9 points), with both Argentina and Iceland having an equal chance of qualifying on four points each
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

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Re: Soccer World Cup 2018

Post by Mobster » Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:05 am

How's it working so far?

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Re: Soccer World Cup 2018

Post by Harry Hayfield » Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:27 am

Mobster wrote:How's it working so far?
The first test of this theory will come with the second round of matches which starts with Russia vs Egypt on June 19th, if that comes out as a Russian win then the theory is holding up, if not, then that data will be added and the calculations modified.
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

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Re: Soccer World Cup 2018

Post by Harry Hayfield » Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:16 pm

Group E Matches
June 17th 2018: Costa Rica 0 - 1 Serbia, Brazil 1 - 1 Switzerland
June 22nd 2018: Brazil 1 - 0 Costa Rica, Serbia 1 - 1 Switzerland
June 27th 2018: Serbia 1 - 1 Brazil, Switzerland 1 - 0 Costa Rica

Brazil, Serbia and Switzerland would all have five points based on their first round matches, therefore it is impossible at the moment to say who would qualify for the next round
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

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Re: Soccer World Cup 2018

Post by Harry Hayfield » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:17 pm

Group F Matches
June 17th 2018: Germany 0 - 1 Mexico
June 18th 2018: Sweden 1 - 0 South Korea
June 23rd 2018: South Korea 0 - 1, Germany 0 - 1 Sweden
June 27th 2018: South Korea 0 - 1 Mexico, Germany 0 - 1 South Korea

This would the shock of the competition as it would see the defending champions knocked out at the group stages.

Group G Matches
June 18th 2018: Belgium 3 - 0 Panama, Tunisia 1 - 2 England
June 23rd 2018: Belgium 3 - 1 Tunisia
June 24th 2018: England 2 - 0 Panama
June 28th 2018: England 2 - 3 Belgium, Panama 0 - 1 Tunisia


Belgium topping the group (9 points) would not be that uncommon, however England would join them and that is rather uncommon
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

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