Senedd Election 2021

Electoral process and election results for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

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Harry Hayfield
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Senedd Election 2021

Post by Harry Hayfield » Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:31 pm

Following passage of the Wales Parliament Act 2020, the National Assembly of Wales (created in 1997 by a referendum which passed by just 7,000 votes out of an electorate of two million) was formally renamed the "Welsh Parliament" with the Welsh translation of "Senedd Cymru" being treated as an equal title. As a result of this change the elections, scheduled to be held on May 6th 2021, have been renamed "Senedd elections" as to opposed to "Assembly elections" as they were known from 1999 - 2016.

The elections are held every four to five years (four years between 1999 and 2011, and then five years since) to elect 60 Assembly Members (Members of the Senedd) in a dual electoral method where 40 members are elected from constituencies (as in an election for Westminster) and an additional 20 members are elected using a form of proportional representation which is a combination of how many second votes are cast for each party and how many constituency seats are won.

Wales has a total of seven mainstream parties (who are in a position to have either won or could win a seat) and ranked from left to right on the political spectrum those parties are:

Propel Wales: Left Wing party seeking independence for Wales in the construct of the European Union
Labour: Main political party in Wales since the 1923 general election and current lead Welsh Government member
Green Party: Environmental and Social justice party
Plaid Cymru: Also seeking Welsh independence by winning a majority in the Senedd, current main opposition party
Liberal Democrats: Centrist party seeking a return to the European Union
Conservative Party: Wishing to cement its result in the December 2019 general election which saw the party win 14 Westminster seats
Reform UK: Formerly known as the Brexit Party, seeking to roll back coronavirus restrictions in Wales and return to normal yesterday
Abolish: Seeking to abolish the Senedd and return powers to Westminster
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

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Harry Hayfield
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Re: Senedd Election 2021

Post by Harry Hayfield » Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:55 pm

National Assembly for Wales Elections 1999
Constituency Results
Labour 384,671 votes (38%) winning 27 constituencies
Plaid Cymru 290,572 votes (28%) winning 9 constituencies
Conservatives 162,133 votes (16%) winning 1 constituency
Liberal Democrats 137,657 votes (13%) winning 3 constituencies
Independent candidates 32,189 votes (3%) winning 0 constituencies
Other Parties 15,803 votes (2%) winning 0 constituencies
Labour lead of 94,099 votes (9%)

Regional List Results
Labour 361,657 (35%) winning 1 seat
Plaid Cymru 312,048 votes (31%) winning 8 seats
Conservatives 168,206 votes (16%) winning 8 seats
Liberal Democrats 128,008 votes (13%) winning 3 seats
Green Party 25,858 votes (3%) winning 0 seats
Socialist Labour Party 10,720 votes (1%) winning 0 seats
Other Parties 13,490 votes (1%) winning 0 seats
Labour lead of 49,609 votes (4%)

Overall Results
Labour 27 constituencies + 1 regional = 28 AM's
Plaid Cymru 9 constituencies + 8 regionals = 17 AM's
Conservatives 1 constituency + 8 regionals = 9 AM's
Liberal Democrats 3 constituencies + 3 regionals = 6 AM's
Hung Assembly, Labour short of an overall majority by 3

In the end Labour decided to go it alone, however within a year the First Secretary of the Assembly (Alun Michael AM, Lab, Mid and West Wales) resigned ahead of a no confidence vote (which was carried anyway). This led to Rhodri Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff West) being elected as First Secretary after agreeing a coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats which saw Mike German AM (Lib Dem, Wales South East) elected as Deputy First Secretary and Liberal Democrats around the Cabinet table
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

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Harry Hayfield
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Re: Senedd Election 2021

Post by Harry Hayfield » Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:39 am

National Assembly for Wales Elections 2003
Constituency Results
Labour 340,515 votes (40% +2%) winning 30 constituencies (+3)
Plaid Cymru 180,185 votes (21% -7%) winning 5 constituencies (-4)
Conservatives 169,432 votes (20% +4%) winning 1 constituency (unchanged)
Liberal Democrats 120,220 votes (14% +1%) winning 3 constituencies (unchanged)
United Kingdom Independence Party 19,795 votes (2%) winning 0 constituencies
Independent candidates 16,862 votes (2% -1%) winning 1 constituencies (+1)
Other Parties 3,396 votes (1% -1%) winning 0 constituencies (unchanged)
Labour lead of 160,429 votes (19%)
Swing from Plaid Cymru to Labour of 5%

Regional List Results
Labour 310,658 votes (37% +2%) winning 0 seats (-1)
Plaid Cymru 167,653 votes (20% -11%) winning 7 seats (-1)
Conservatives 162,725 votes (19% +3%) winning 10 seats (+2)
Liberal Democrats 108,013 votes (13% unchanged) winning 3 seats (unchanged)
Green Party 30,028 votes (4% +1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
United Kingdom Independence Party 29,427 votes (3%) winning 0 seats
Independent candidates 11,008 votes (1%) winning 0 seats
Socialist Labour Party 10,358 votes (1% unchanged) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Other Parties 19,682 votes (2% +1) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Labour lead of 49,609 votes (4%)

Overall Results
Labour 30 constituencies + 0 regional = 30 AM's (+2)
Plaid Cymru 5 constituencies + 7 regionals = 12 AM's (-5)
Conservatives 1 constituency + 10 regionals = 11 AM's (+2)
Liberal Democrats 3 constituencies + 3 regionals = 6 AM's (unchanged)
Independent candidates 1 constituency + 0 regionals = 1 AM (+1)
Hung Assembly, Labour short by 1

Rhodri Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff West) announced that Labour would govern as a minority and challenged the Opposition parties to vote the Government down. At no point did they do so, and so Labour governed for the full four years without any assistance from other parties or a formal coaition.
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

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Harry Hayfield
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Re: Senedd Election 2021

Post by Harry Hayfield » Wed Mar 24, 2021 8:14 am

National Assembly for Wales Elections 2007 (Boundary changes took place)
Constituency Results
Labour 314,925 votes (32% -8%) winning 24 constituencies
Plaid Cymru 219,121 votes (22% +1%) winning 7 constituencies
Conservatives 218,730 votes (22% +2%) winning 5 constituencies
Liberal Democrats 144,450 votes (15% +1%) winning 3 constituencies
Independent candidates 55,766 votes (6% +4%) winning 1 constituency
United Kingdom Independence Party 18,047 votes (2% unchanged) winning 0 constituencies
Other Parties 7,083 votes (1% unchanged) winning 0 constituencies
Labour lead of 95,804 votes (10%)
Swing from Labour to Plaid Cymru of 4.5%

Regional List Results
Labour 288,954 votes (30% -7%) winning 2 seats (+2)
Conservatives 209,153 votes (21% +2%) winning 7 seats (-3)
Plaid Cymru 204,757 votes (21% +1%) winning 7 seats (unchanged)
Liberal Democrats 114,500 votes (12% -1%) winning 3 seats (unchanged)
British National Party 42,197 votes (4% +4%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
United Kingdom Independence Party 38,490 votes (4% +1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Green Party 33,803 votes (3% -1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Socialist Labour Party 12,209 votes (1% unchanged) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Other Parties 30,821 votes (4% +2%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Labour lead of 79,801 votes (9%)

Overall Results
Labour 24 constituencies + 2 regional = 26 AM's
Plaid Cymru 7 constituencies + 7 regionals = 14 AM's
Conservatives 5 constituencies + 7 regionals = 12 AM's
Liberal Democrats 3 constituencies + 3 regionals = 6 AM's
Independent candidates 1 constituency + 0 regionals = 1 AM
Hung Assembly, Labour short by 5

Rhodri Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff West) and Ieuan Wyn Jones AM (Plaid, Ynys Môn) agreed to a formal coalition framed by the "One Wales" document which outlined what the coalition would do. As a result, the government was able to govern for a full four year term with Rhodri Morgan elected as First Minister and Ieuan Wyn Jones appointed Deputy First Minister
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

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Harry Hayfield
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Re: Senedd Election 2021

Post by Harry Hayfield » Sat Mar 27, 2021 2:06 pm

National Assembly for Wales Elections 2011
Constituency Results
Labour 401,677 votes (42% +10%) winning 28 constituencies (+4)
Conservatives 237,388 votes (25% +3%) winning 6 constituencies (+1)
Plaid Cymru 182,907 votes (19% -3%) winning 5 constituencies (-2)
Liberal Democrats 100,259 votes (11% -4%) winning 1 constituencies (-2)
Independent candidates 15,703 votes (2% -4%) winning 0 constituencies (-1)
Other Parties 11,318 votes (1% unchanged) winning 0 constituencies (unchanged)
Labour lead of 164,289 votes (17%)
Swing from Con to Lab of 3.5% (Plaid to Lab of 6.5%)

Regional List Results
Labour 349,935 votes (37% +7%) winning 2 seats (unchanged)
Conservatives 213,773 votes (23% +2%) winning 8 seats (+1)
Plaid Cymru 169,799 votes (18% -3%) winning 6 seats (-2) (unchanged)
Liberal Democrats 76,349 votes (8% -4%) winning 4 seats (+1)
United Kingdom Independence Party 43,756 votes (5% +1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Green Party 32,649 votes (3% unchanged) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Socialist Labour Party 23,020 votes (2% +1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
British National Party 22,610 votes (2% -2%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Other Parties 17,497 votes (2% -2%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Labour lead of 136,162 votes (14%)

Overall Results
Labour 28 constituencies + 2 regional = 30 AM's (+4)
Plaid Cymru 5 constituencies + 6 regionals = 11 AM's (-4)
Conservatives 6 constituencies + 8 regionals = 14 AM's (+2)
Liberal Democrats 1 constituencies + 4 regionals = 5 AM's (-1)
Independent candidates 0 constituencies + 0 regionals = 0 AM (-1)
Hung Assembly, Labour and Opposition tied

Carwyn Jones AM (Lab, Bridgend) did exactly the same as Rhodri Morgan did in 2003 and as a result was able to govern for a full term without being defeated in the Assembly.
"Great heavens, what is there to adulate in me? Am I particularly intelligent, or remarkably studious, or excruciatingly witty, or unusually accomplished, or exceptionally virtuous?"
(The Duke of Dunstable, Patience by Gilbert and Sullivan)

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